Fix USA Plan · V1 evidence baseline · reviewed August 21, 2026
A cross-system snapshot of current official U.S. evidence used by Fix USA Plan. These figures describe conditions, program baselines, study findings, or agency forecasts; they do not by themselves prove that a particular policy caused an outcome or that one political approach is correct.
BLS reported that CPI-U rose 0.1% in July 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.4% over 12 months. Core CPI rose 0.2% in July and 2.5% over 12 months.
Limit: an inflation rate measures the pace of price change, not the absolute price level or every household's experience.
Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08122026.htm
BLS reported shelter rose 0.1% in July and accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly all-items CPI increase.
Limit: this is a contribution to measured inflation, not proof that one housing policy or one supply constraint caused the result.
Related: Housing & communities
Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08122026.htm
BLS reported food at home fell 0.1% in July and was 2.7% higher over 12 months; the broader food index rose 0.1% in July.
Limit: national CPI is not a local grocery basket and does not replace retailer-, store-, size-, loyalty-, or coupon-specific price provenance.
Related: Food affordability & grocery savings
Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08122026.htm
The 2026 Social Security Trustees project the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance reserve will be depleted in Q4 2032. At depletion, continuing income would cover about 78% of scheduled benefits, with the share declining over the projection period.
Limit: reserve depletion does not mean benefits fall to zero, and the projection is not a prediction that Congress will choose any particular reform.
Related: Social Security & retirement security · Not Broke. Mismanaged.
Source: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2026/II_A_highlights.html
The Trustees project Disability Insurance reserves remain positive through 2100. The illustrative combined OASDI reserve depletion date is Q3 2034, with about 83% of scheduled benefits payable at depletion.
Limit: OASI and DI are legally separate trust funds even though combined illustrations are widely used; a single date should not be presented as if every program has the same financing status.
Source: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2026/II_A_highlights.html
The Federal Reserve's G.19 release reported consumer credit grew at a 2.6% annualized rate in Q2 2026; revolving credit grew 3.9%, nonrevolving credit 2.1%, and June total consumer credit 3.3% annualized.
Limit: credit growth alone does not establish household prosperity or distress; rates, fees, delinquencies, income, balances, underwriting, and distribution matter.
Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/
EIA's August Short-Term Energy Outlook was released August 11, 2026, based on a forecast completed August 6; the next scheduled STEO release is September 9.
Why it matters: forecasts should carry an as-of date and a review date so assumptions are not mistaken for permanent facts.
Related: Energy, environment & resilience
Source: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/
GAO reported in July 2026 that DOD plans to invest more than $2.4 trillion to develop and acquire its costliest weapon systems, while average time to deliver capability across major defense acquisition programs increased to more than 12 years.
Limit: these are procurement scale and performance measures; they do not decide whether a specific weapon program, force structure, alliance, or conflict policy is warranted.
Related: National capacity, security & infrastructure
Source: https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-108457
GAO found 18 of 40 programs entered the middle-tier rapid-acquisition pathway with immature technologies from 2018–2025; 7 of 8 programs GAO reviewed that were currently on the pathway still had immature technologies requiring more development.
Limit: technology maturity is one implementation factor among requirements, workforce, industrial-base capacity, testing, funding, and program management.
Source: https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-108457
CMS reports U.S. national health expenditures grew 7.2% to $5.3 trillion in 2024, or 18.0% of GDP. Hospital spending reached $1,634.7 billion. CMS projects average national health-expenditure growth of 5.4% from 2025–2034 versus 4.1% average GDP growth, raising health spending to 20.6% of GDP in 2034.
Limit: spending is not the same as quality, access, health outcomes, or value. The 2034 figures are projections, not guaranteed outcomes.
Related: Health & Medicine
Source: https://www.cms.gov/data-research/statistics-trends-and-reports/national-health-expenditure-data/nhe-fact-sheet
Apprenticeship.gov's Active Programs page currently includes Registered Apprenticeship administrative data through July 15, 2026. For NAEP, 2026 reading and mathematics results for grades 4 and 8 are scheduled for Winter 2027, while national grade-8 civics and U.S. history results are scheduled for Summer 2027.
Limit: current apprenticeship administrative data can inform workforce capacity, but it does not by itself establish program quality or earnings effects. Fix USA Plan will not invent NAEP 2026 outcome figures before NCES releases them.
Related: Education & workforce
Sources: https://www.apprenticeship.gov/data-and-statistics/active-programs · https://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/about/calendar.aspx
GAO reports that 15 federal agencies estimated about $186 billion in improper payments across 64 programs in fiscal year 2025, including about $153 billion in overpayments. GAO also says the reported estimates do not represent the full extent of government-wide improper payments.
Limit: an improper payment is a payment that should not have been made or was made in the wrong amount; it is not the same as proven fraud. Payment errors, overpayments, fraud risk, waste, and established fraud are different concepts.
Related: Your Money, Tracked · IG & Watchdog Tracking
Source: https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-108694
An NIH-funded long-term analysis of the ACTIVE randomized training study linked the speed-of-processing training group that also completed booster sessions to a 25% lower rate of claims-based Alzheimer disease and related dementia diagnosis over long follow-up. Memory and reasoning training did not show the same main effect.
Evidence stage: long-term follow-up of a randomized training trial linked to Medicare diagnosis claims. This is a promising signal, not proof of universal dementia prevention or a cure; the specific mechanism and replication questions remain open.
Source: https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/cognitive-speed-training-over-weeks-may-delay-diagnosis-dementia-over-decades · DOI 10.1002/trc2.70197
In a randomized trial of 604 cognitively unimpaired older adults followed for three years, both the MIND-diet and control-diet groups improved in global cognition, but the between-group difference was not statistically significant (P=0.23). MRI changes were also similar between groups.
Evidence stage: randomized controlled trial, NCT02817074. The neutral result does not mean diet is irrelevant to general health; it means this specific intervention did not significantly outperform its active control for the measured cognitive and MRI outcomes over three years.
Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37466280/ · DOI 10.1056/NEJMoa2302368
FHWA's March 12, 2026 Highway Infrastructure Programs notice identifies a total of about $2.396 billion in new and repurposed FY2026 HIP budget authority. Among specified set-asides, it lists $350 million for a competitive highway bridge program and $30 million for qualifying Reconnecting Communities Pilot capital-construction grants.
Limit: appropriations, repurposed funds, and program set-asides are policy inputs, not evidence that funded projects will be delivered on time, under budget, or with the intended outcomes.
Related: Infrastructure & national investment
Source: https://highways.dot.gov/sites/fhwa.dot.gov/files/FHWA%20Notice%20N4510.913.pdf
Each figure is a dated input to a larger problem → evidence → options → implementation → cost/tradeoffs → counterarguments → sources → freshness review. Fix USA Plan keeps descriptive evidence separate from policy judgment and updates or supersedes a baseline when its authoritative source changes.
Freshness review: CPI and food-at-home data — next BLS CPI release; Social Security — next Trustees Report or material statutory change; consumer credit — next Federal Reserve G.19 release; STEO — September 9, 2026; defense acquisition — next GAO annual assessment or material program update; national health spending — next CMS historical/projection update; apprenticeship — next data refresh; NAEP 2026 outcomes — Winter/Summer 2027 scheduled releases; improper payments — next GAO/agency payment-integrity cycle; healthy aging — replication/guideline updates; highway programs — FY2027 appropriations or material statutory/program changes.